By almost every measure, the likely outcome is that Joe Biden will win the White House. Yet less than two weeks before Election Day, the unfolding reality of 2020 is that it’s harder than ever to be sure. POLITICO’s Charlie Mahtesian and Scott Bland lay out why they’re not ruling out another surprise Trump victory on Nov. 3.
But American officials expect that if the presidential race is not called on election night, Russian groups could use their knowledge of the local computer systems to deface websites, release nonpublic information or take similar steps that could sow chaos and doubts about the integrity of the results, according to officials briefed on the intelligence. Such steps could fuel Mr. Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that the vote is “rigged” and that he can be defeated only if his opponents cheat.
Some U.S. intelligence officials view Russia’s intentions as more significant than the announcement on Wednesday night by the director of national intelligence, John Ratcliffe, that Iran has been involved in the spread of faked, threatening emails, which were made to appear as if they came from the Proud Boys, a right-wing extremist group.
The Treasury Department on Thursday announced sanctions against Iraj Masjedi, a former general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and the country’s ambassador to Iraq. The department said General Masjedi had overseen training of pro-Iranian militia groups in Iraq and directed groups responsible for killing American forces there.
Officials briefed on the intelligence said that Mr. Ratcliffe had accurately summarized the preliminary conclusion about Iran. But Tehran’s hackers may have accomplished that mission simply by assembling public information and then routing the threatening emails through Estonia, Saudi Arabia and other countries to hide their tracks. One official compared the Iranian action to playing single A baseball, while the Russians are major leaguers.
Nonetheless, the Iranian and the Russian activity could pave the way for so-called perception hacks, which are intended to leave the impression that foreign powers have greater access to the voting system than they really do. Federal officials have warned for months that small breaches could be exaggerated to prompt inaccurate charges of widespread voter fraud.
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